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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy said that the US Congress is expected to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, leading to high-level meetings possibly this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror article 5” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, including through operating inside its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would serve as assurances matching Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Moscow is near accepting the type of package under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not received the details of the proposals on security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to troops from Nato countries operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts continues to be the issue of land. One proposal involves Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russian troops would not advance, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use internal security formations instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” commented the president, recording the comments as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he concluded.